The most disproportionate UK election: how the Labour Party doubled its seat share with a 1.6‐point increase in vote share in 2024

Journal article

The Labour Party doubled its seats in the 2024 UK general election, winning a landslide majority with only a 1.6 point increase in its UK vote share and an historically low vote share for a winning party at just under 34 per cent. This article provides new evidence for three constituency-level explanations for this outcome in the context of anti-incumbent voting. First, the local race increased tactical voting between Labour and the Liberal Democrats where races were perceived to be competitive. Second, Reform UK lowered the threshold needed for Labour to take more constituencies—particularly from the Conservatives—with greater constituency fragmentation on the political right. Third, Labour outperformed its national success in Scotland, gaining larger swings with a double ‘anti-incumbent’ vote. These patterns are critical to understanding the 2024 general election and are informative for the stability of Labour's electoral coalition. Labour's 2024 majority rests on factors largely unrelated to its own electoral popularity and which are unlikely to remain stable between now and the next general election.

Authors: Miori, M; Green, J

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Wiley
• Journal: Political Quarterly
• Volume: 96
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 37-64
• Publication date: 2025-01-28
• Acceptance date: 2025-01-20
• DOI: 10.1111/1467-923x.13504
• EISSN: 1467-923X
• ISSN: 0032-3179
• Language: English
• Keywords: first past the post; fragmentation; 2024 UK general election; efficiency; votes-to-seats; tactical voting; anti-incumbency; constituency voting