# Working paper

## Identification and forecasting in the Lee-Carter model.

Abstract:
We consider the identification problem for the model of Lee and Carter (1992). The parameters of this model are known only to be identified up to certain transformations. Forecasts from the model may therefore depend on the arbitrarily chosen identification scheme. A condition for invariant forecasts is proposed. A number of standard forecast models are analyzed.

### Access Document

Files:
• (pdf, 122.4KB)

### Authors

Publisher:
Nuffield College (University of Oxford)
Series:
Nuffield College Economics Working Papers
Publication date:
2010-12-01
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:680cdbe8-2dfe-4cd5-b351-18384f16c8c6
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:15023
Deposit date:
2011-08-16