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Journal article

Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics

Abstract:

Macroeconomic time-series data are aggregated, inaccurate, non-stationary, collinear and rarely match theoretical concepts. Macroeconomic theories are incomplete, incorrect and changeable: location shifts invalidate the law of iterated expectations and ‘rational expectations’ are then systematically biased. Empirical macro-econometric models are non-constant and mis-specified in numerous ways, so economic policy often has unexpected effects, and macroeconomic forecasts go awry. In place of us...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's version

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.09.003

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Department:
Oxford, SSD, Economics, EMOD
Publisher:
Elsevier Publisher's website
Journal:
International Journal of Forecasting Journal website
Volume:
34
Issue:
1
Pages:
119–135
Publication date:
2017-10-18
Acceptance date:
2017-07-21
DOI:
ISSN:
0169-2070
Pubs id:
pubs:713162
URN:
uri:677fabad-9d3a-426c-8f58-90ca01aa3b91
UUID:
uuid:677fabad-9d3a-426c-8f58-90ca01aa3b91
Local pid:
pubs:713162

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