Journal article
Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
- Abstract:
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Background
Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on the incidence of malaria remain unclear.
Methods
Here, we analyze the effects of interventions on the transmission dynamics of malaria (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) on Hainan Island, China, controlling for environmental factors. Mathematical models were fitted to epidemiological data, including confirmed cases and population-wide blood examinations, collected between 1995 and 2010, a period when malaria control interventions were rolled out with positive outcomes.
Results
Prior to the massive scale-up of interventions, malaria incidence shows both interannual variability and seasonality, as well as a strong correlation with climatic patterns linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Based on our mechanistic model, we find that the reduction in malaria is likely due to the large scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets, which reduce the infections of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria by 93.4% and 35.5%, respectively. Mass drug administration has a greater contribution in the control of P. falciparum (54.9%) than P. vivax (5.3%). In a comparison of interventions, indoor residual spraying makes a relatively minor contribution to malaria control (1.3%–9.6%).
Conclusions
Although malaria transmission on Hainan Island has been exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation, control methods have eliminated both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria from this part of China.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z
Authors
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Communications Medicine More from this journal
- Volume:
- 2
- Article number:
- 12
- Publication date:
- 2022-02-09
- Acceptance date:
- 2022-01-11
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2730-664X
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1238680
- Local pid:
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pubs:1238680
- Deposit date:
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2022-02-09
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Tian et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2022
- Rights statement:
- Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Notes:
- A correction to this article is available online from Springer Nature at: 10.1038/s43856-022-00089-5
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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