Journal article : Comment
Continual updating and monitoring of clinical prediction models: time for dynamic prediction systems?
- Abstract:
- Clinical prediction models (CPMs) have become fundamental for risk stratification across healthcare. The CPM pipeline (development, validation, deployment, and impact assessment) is commonly viewed as a one-time activity, with model updating rarely considered and done in a somewhat ad hoc manner. This fails to address the fact that the performance of a CPM worsens over time as natural changes in populations and care pathways occur. CPMs need constant surveillance to maintain adequate predictive performance. Rather than reactively updating a developed CPM once evidence of deteriorated performance accumulates, it is possible to proactively adapt CPMs whenever new data becomes available. Approaches for validation then need to be changed accordingly, making validation a continuous rather than a discrete effort. As such, “living” (dynamic) CPMs represent a paradigm shift, where the analytical methods dynamically generate updated versions of a model through time; one then needs to validate the system rather than each subsequent model revision.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 714.0KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1186/s41512-020-00090-3
Authors
- Publisher:
- BioMed Central
- Journal:
- Diagnostic and Prognostic Research More from this journal
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 1
- Publication date:
- 2021-01-11
- Acceptance date:
- 2020-12-08
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2397-7523
- Pmid:
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33431065
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Subtype:
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Comment
- Pubs id:
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1158756
- Local pid:
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pubs:1158756
- Deposit date:
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2021-01-27
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- DA Jenkins et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2021
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s). 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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