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The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill

Abstract:

Forecasting seasonal variations in European summer weather represents a considerable challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a seasonal forecasting model at representing a major mode of northern hemisphere summer climate variability, the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and the implications of errors in its representation on sea7 sonal forecasts for the European summer (June, July, August). Using seasonal hindcasts initialised at the start of May, we find that the model skill for fore...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's Version

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Publisher copy:
10.1007/s00382-018-4371-4

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics
Oxford college:
University College
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Springer Verlag Publisher's website
Journal:
Climate Dynamics Journal website
Volume:
52
Issue:
5-6
Pages:
3759–3771
Publication date:
2018-07-28
Acceptance date:
2018-07-07
DOI:
EISSN:
1432-0894
ISSN:
0930-7575
Pubs id:
pubs:865274
URN:
uri:5c03dbf1-e6fa-4761-8341-2a0fa177704e
UUID:
uuid:5c03dbf1-e6fa-4761-8341-2a0fa177704e
Local pid:
pubs:865274

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