A REAL-TIME SCHEME FOR THE PREDICTION OF FORECAST SKILL

Journal article

During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and indices of large-scale regime transitions. The results of the experiment are assessed with particular attention to a period with large variations in the skill of the operational forecast. -Authors

Authors: Molteni, F; Palmer, T

• Publication status: Published
• Journal: MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW More from this journal
• Volume: 119
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 1088-1097
• Publication date: 1991-04-01
• DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1088:ARTSFT>2.0.CO;2
• EISSN: 1520-0493
• ISSN: 0027-0644
• Language: English