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Journal article

Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract:
We have been publishing real-time forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths for COVID-19 from mid-March 2020 onwards, published at www.doornik.com/COVID-19. These forecasts are short-term statistical extrapolations of past and current data. They assume that the underlying trend is informative of short-term developments, without requiring other assumptions of how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spreading, or whether preventative policies are effective. We provide an overview of the forecasting approach that we use and assess the quality of the forecasts in comparison to those from an epidemiological model.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.24966/ciit-8844/1000046

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Economics
Role:
Author


Publisher:
Herald Scholarly Open Access
Journal:
Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy More from this journal
Volume:
6
Issue:
5
Article number:
046
Publication date:
2020-10-27
Acceptance date:
2020-10-20
DOI:
EISSN:
2378-8844


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1163250
Local pid:
pubs:1163250
Deposit date:
2021-02-23

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