Journal article
Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Abstract:
- We have been publishing real-time forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths for COVID-19 from mid-March 2020 onwards, published at www.doornik.com/COVID-19. These forecasts are short-term statistical extrapolations of past and current data. They assume that the underlying trend is informative of short-term developments, without requiring other assumptions of how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spreading, or whether preventative policies are effective. We provide an overview of the forecasting approach that we use and assess the quality of the forecasts in comparison to those from an epidemiological model.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 528.6KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.24966/ciit-8844/1000046
Authors
- Publisher:
- Herald Scholarly Open Access
- Journal:
- Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy More from this journal
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 5
- Article number:
- 046
- Publication date:
- 2020-10-27
- Acceptance date:
- 2020-10-20
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2378-8844
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1163250
- Local pid:
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pubs:1163250
- Deposit date:
-
2021-02-23
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Doornik et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2020
- Rights statement:
- Copyright © 2020 Jurgen A Doornik, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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