Dependencies of Simulated Convective Cell and System Growth Biases on Atmospheric Instability and Model Resolution

Journal article

This study evaluates convective cell properties and their relationships with convective and stratiform rainfall within a season‐long convection‐permitting weather research and forecasting simulation over central Argentina using radar, satellite, and radiosonde measurements from the RELAMPAGO‐CACTI field campaign. The simulation slightly underestimates radar‐estimated rainfall over the ∼3.5‐month evaluation period but underestimates stratiform rainfall by 46% and overestimates convective rainfall by 43%. As convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases, the convective rainfall overestimation decreases, but the stratiform rainfall underestimation increases such that the contribution of convective to total rainfall remains constantly high biased by ∼26%. Overestimated convective rainfall arises from the simulation generating 2.6 times more precipitating convective cells (14,299) than observed by radar (5,662) despite similar observed and simulated cell growth processes, with relatively wide cells contributing mostly to excessive convective rainfall. Relatively shallow cells, typically reaching heights of 4–7 km, contribute most to the cell number bias. This cell number bias increases as CAPE decreases, potentially because cells and their updrafts become narrower and more under‐resolved as CAPE decreases. The gross overproduction of precipitating shallow cells leads to overly efficient precipitation and inadequate detrainment of ice aloft, thereby diminishing the formation of robust stratiform rainfall regions. Decreasing model horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 1 or 0.333 km for low (<300 J kg−1) and high CAPE (>1,000 J kg−1) cases results in minimal change to cell number, depth, and convective‐to‐stratiform partitioning biases. This suggests that improving prediction of these convective properties depends on factors beyond solely increasing model resolution.

Authors: Zhang, Z; Varble, AC; Feng, Z; Marquis, JN; Hardin, JC

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union
• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Volume: 129
• Issue: 22
• Article number: e2024JD041090
• Publication date: 2024-11-22
• Acceptance date: 2024-11-03
• DOI: 10.1029/2024jd041090
• EISSN: 2169-8996
• ISSN: 2169-8996, 2169-897X
• Language: English
• Keywords: resolution; model evaluation; precipitation; organization; convection