Journal article
Hitting a moving target: a model for malaria elimination in the presence of population movement
- Abstract:
- Abstract South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metapopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 726.5KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1371/journal.pone.0144990
Authors
- Publisher:
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Journal:
- PloS one More from this journal
- Issue:
- 12
- Pages:
- e0144990
- Publication date:
- 2015-01-01
- Acceptance date:
- 2015-11-25
- DOI:
- ISSN:
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1932-6203
- Pmid:
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26689547
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:584188
- UUID:
-
uuid:5578a20c-621c-4425-9582-02cdcb0df53a
- Local pid:
-
pubs:584188
- Source identifiers:
-
584188
- Deposit date:
-
2019-02-05
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Silal et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2015
- Rights statement:
- © 2015 Silal et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
- Notes:
- A correction to this article is available at: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159784
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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