The Response of the QBO to External Forcings: Implications for Disruption Events

Journal article

Plain Language Summary: The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical atmosphere between 16 and 50 km above the surface. It manifests most strongly as downward propagating zonal wind variations exceeding 25 m/s with an average period of ∼ ${\sim} $ 28 months. Twice in the past 10 years the QBO regular phase evolution has been disrupted after 60 years of no disruptions, motivating our analysis of the role of greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, volcanic eruptions, and solar variability for historical changes in the QBO. We find prominent roles for four of these five external forcings, and specifically both rising greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions help induce disruption events.

Authors: Garfinkel, CI; Avisar, D; Osprey, S; Smith, D

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union
• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Volume: 130
• Issue: 22
• Article number: e2025JD044438
• Publication date: 2025-11-14
• Acceptance date: 2025-11-01
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044438
• EISSN: 2169-8996
• ISSN: 2169897X, 2169-897X
• Language: English
• Keywords: quasi‐biennial oscillation; attribution; disruption events