Journal article icon

Journal article

Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heat wave and Pakistan flooding

Abstract:
Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

Actions


Access Document


Publisher copy:
10.1038/s41612-021-00211-9

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-8751-1211


Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science More from this journal
Volume:
4
Article number:
55
Publication date:
2021-11-04
Acceptance date:
2021-09-29
DOI:
ISSN:
2397-3722


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1206241
Local pid:
pubs:1206241
Deposit date:
2021-11-01

Terms of use



Views and Downloads






If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record

TO TOP