Anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the likelihood of July 2017–like heat waves over central eastern China

Journal article

During July 2017, an unprecedentedly intense heat wave struck Central-Eastern China, resulting in drastically-increased human morbidity/mortality, steeply-reduced agriculture productivity, and serious shortage of electricity and water supply (China Climate Bulletin of 2017). Many meteorological stations registered 15–25 hot days (daily maximum temperature over 35°C), and some even had their record-high July temperatures, such as a new record of 40.9°C amongst historical observations since 1873 in Xu-Jia-Hui station in Shanghai (China Climate Bulletin of 2017). The China Meteorological Administration issued 10 high-level warnings against hot weather during 21st–25th July. Such unprecedentedly frequent alarms within only 5 days attracted intense scrutiny from policy-makers, media, and the public on the relationship between this heat wave and global warming.

Previous studies usually conducted attribution analyses on seasonal warmth in Central-Eastern China (e.g. the 2013 record-breaking summer, Sun et al. 2014), leaving attribution statements for short-term (synoptic) hot extremes sparsely reported. This study therefore attempts to answer whether and to what extent anthropogenic warming has increased the likelihood of 5-day heat waves as hot or hotter than the 21st–25th July 2017 case over Central-Eastern China.

Authors: Chen, Y; Chen, W; Su, Q; Luo, F; Sparrow, S

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• Volume: 100
• Issue: S1
• Pages: S91-S95
• Publication date: 2019-02-15
• Acceptance date: 2018-09-21
• DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0087.1
• EISSN: 1520-0477