Tropical volcanic impacts on MENA climate via ENSO and NAO dynamics in a high-top model

Journal article

Volcanic eruptions are among the strongest climate drivers, yet their regional impacts on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain poorly constrained. Post-eruption amplified winter cooling in MENA is often attributed to a volcanically forced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but the concurrent occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) complicates attribution. Furthermore, summer climatic responses, including tropical warming and mid-latitude cooling, remain underexplored. Here, we present a pioneering research using a high-top coupled climate model (MIROC6) to assess volcanic-induced ENSO–NAO interactions and their regional climate impacts. We demonstrate that volcanic-induced NAO variability is the primary driver of post-eruption MENA winter cooling, with El Niño acting as a modulator rather than a fundamental trigger. We further reveal distinct summer climate anomalies, including suppressed precipitation over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These findings underscore the importance of high-top models to resolve stratospheric influences on post-volcanic climate variability.

Authors: Dogar, MM; Watanabe, S; Fujiwara, M; Abid, MA; Habeebullah, TM

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Volume: 8
• Issue: 1
• Article number: 330
• Publication date: 2025-09-29
• Acceptance date: 2025-08-12
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01201-x
• EISSN: 2397-3722
• Language: English