The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

Journal article

Abstract:: We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.

Files:: future-of-employment.pdf

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Publisher:: Elsevier
Journal:: Technological Forecasting and Social Change More from this journal
Volume:: 114
Pages:: 254-280
Publication date:: 2016-09-29
Acceptance date:: 2016-08-19
DOI:: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019
ISSN:: 0040-1625

Keywords:: wage innequality

technological change

occupational choice

skill demand

employment
Pubs id:: pubs:661816
UUID:: uuid:4ed9f1bd-27e9-4e30-997e-5fc8405b0491
Local pid:: pubs:661816
Source identifiers:: 661816
Deposit date:: 2016-11-28

Notes:: © 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc. This is the author accepted manuscript following peer review version of the article. The final version is available online from Elsevier at: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019

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