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The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

Abstract:
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019

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Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Divisional Administration
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Department:
Exeter College
Publisher:
Elsevier Publisher's website
Journal:
Technological Forecasting and Social Change Journal website
Volume:
114
Pages:
254-280
Publication date:
2016-09-29
Acceptance date:
2016-08-19
DOI:
ISSN:
0040-1625
Pubs id:
pubs:661816
URN:
uri:4ed9f1bd-27e9-4e30-997e-5fc8405b0491
UUID:
uuid:4ed9f1bd-27e9-4e30-997e-5fc8405b0491
Local pid:
pubs:661816

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