Journal article
The ends of 27 big depressions
- Abstract:
- How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on well-defined dates, inflationary expectations clearly rose in the wake of departure. Instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
Actions
Access Document
- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.2MB, Terms of use)
-
(Preview, Supplementary materials, pdf, 6.9MB, Terms of use)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1257/aer.20221479
Authors
- Publisher:
- American Economic Association
- Journal:
- American Economic Review More from this journal
- Volume:
- 114
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- 134-68
- Publication date:
- 2024-01-01
- Acceptance date:
- 2023-09-18
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
1944-7981
- ISSN:
-
0002-8282
- Language:
-
English
- Pubs id:
-
1569546
- Local pid:
-
pubs:1569546
- Deposit date:
-
2023-11-22
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- American Economic Association.
- Copyright date:
- 2024
- Rights statement:
- Copyright © 2024 American Economic Association.
If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record