Journal article
The future of Jihadism in Europe: a pessimistic view
- Abstract:
- This article presents a ten-year forecast for jihadism in Europe. Despite reaching historically high levels in recent years, violent Islamist activity in Europe may increase further over the long term due to four macrotrends: 1) expected growth in the number of economically underperforming Muslim youth, 2) expected growth in the number of available jihadi entrepreneurs, 3) persistent conflict in the Muslim world, and 4) continued operational freedom for clandestine actors on the Internet. Over the next decade, the jihadi attack plot frequency in Europe may follow a fluctuating curve with progressively higher peaks. Many things can undercut the trends and lead to a less ominous outcome, but the scenario is sufficiently likely to merit attention from policymakers.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 231.5KB, Terms of use)
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- Publication website:
- https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297715
Authors
- Publisher:
- University of Massachusetts Lowell
- Journal:
- Perspectives on Terrorism More from this journal
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 6
- Pages:
- 156-170
- Publication date:
- 2016-11-30
- Acceptance date:
- 2016-09-15
- EISSN:
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2334-3745
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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2025869
- Local pid:
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pubs:2025869
- Deposit date:
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2024-09-07
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- International Centre for Counter-Terrorism
- Copyright date:
- 2016
- Rights statement:
- © 2016 International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. This Journal Article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (CC BY 3.0)
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY) 3.0
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