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The future of Jihadism in Europe: a pessimistic view

Abstract:
This article presents a ten-year forecast for jihadism in Europe. Despite reaching historically high levels in recent years, violent Islamist activity in Europe may increase further over the long term due to four macrotrends: 1) expected growth in the number of economically underperforming Muslim youth, 2) expected growth in the number of available jihadi entrepreneurs, 3) persistent conflict in the Muslim world, and 4) continued operational freedom for clandestine actors on the Internet. Over the next decade, the jihadi attack plot frequency in Europe may follow a fluctuating curve with progressively higher peaks. Many things can undercut the trends and lead to a less ominous outcome, but the scenario is sufficiently likely to merit attention from policymakers.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publication website:
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26297715

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Politics & Int Relations
Oxford college:
All Souls College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-6253-1518


Publisher:
University of Massachusetts Lowell
Journal:
Perspectives on Terrorism More from this journal
Volume:
10
Issue:
6
Pages:
156-170
Publication date:
2016-11-30
Acceptance date:
2016-09-15
EISSN:
2334-3745


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
2025869
Local pid:
pubs:2025869
Deposit date:
2024-09-07

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