Explainable machine learning for predicting ICU mortality in myocardial infarction patients using pseudo-dynamic data

Journal article

Myocardial infarction (MI) remains one of the greatest contributors to mortality, and patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with myocardial infarction are at higher risk of death. In this study, we use two retrospective cohorts extracted from two US-based ICU databases, eICU and MIMIC-IV, to develop an explainable pseudo-dynamic machine learning framework for mortality prediction in the ICU. The method provides accurate prediction for ICU patients up to 24 hours before the event and provides time-resolved interpretability. We compare standard supervised machine learning algorithms with novel tabular deep learning approaches and find that an integrated XGBoost model in our EHR time-series extraction framework (XMI-ICU) performs best. The framework was evaluated on a held-out test set from eICU and externally validated on the MIMIC-IV cohort using the most important features identified by time-resolved Shapley values. XMI-ICU achieved AUROCs of 92.0 (balanced accuracy of 82.3) for a 6-hour prediction of mortality. We demonstrate that XMI-ICU maintains reliable predictive performance across different prediction horizons (6, 12, 18, and 24 hours) during ICU stay while also achieving successful external validation in a separate patient cohort from MIMIC-IV without any previous training on that dataset. We also evaluated the framework for clinical risk analysis by comparing it to the standard APACHE IV system in active use. We show that our framework successfully leverages time-series physiological measurements from ICU health records by translating them into stacked static prediction problems for mortality in heart attack patients and can offer clinical insight from time-resolved interpretability through the use of Shapley values.

Authors: Mesinovic, M; Watkinson, P; Zhu, T

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Volume: 15
• Issue: 1
• Article number: 27887
• Publication date: 2025-07-31
• Acceptance date: 2025-07-23
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-13299-3
• EISSN: 2045-2322
• Language: English
• Keywords: Explainability; Icare; Prediction; Machine learning; Myocardial infarction