Do Ukrainians still prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost?

Journal article

Do Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions to Russia as found by Dill, Howlett and Müller-Crepon (2024a) in July 2022? Or have their attitudes toward resistance changed given mounting costs and uncertain benefits of self-defense against Russia’s aggression? Between December 2024 and January 2025, we presented the original and a modified conjoint experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2,580 Ukrainian citizens, sampled from largely the same locations as before. We find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory meanwhile has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians and less waraffected respondents remain comparatively more willing to resist Russia’s aggression than other respondents. Locations’ exposure to war-related violence is not associated with changes in Ukrainians’ attitudes since 2022. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support for a potential political settlement in Ukraine.

Authors: Dill, J; Howlett, M; Müller-Crepon, C

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• Journal: Journal of Peace Research
• Volume: 63
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 269-278
• Publication date: 2026-01-20
• Acceptance date: 2025-11-17
• DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjaf019
• EISSN: 1460-3578
• ISSN: 0022-3433
• Language: English
• Keywords: attitudes toward war; self-defense; proportionality; conjoint design; Ukraine