Coup traps: why does Africa have so many coups d'état?

Working paper

In Africa coup plots are by far the most common challenge to the continuity of regimes. In this paper we investigate proneness to coups by drawing on our previous work on proneness to civil war. The most striking aspect of our results is the similarity in the causes of coups and civil wars. Standard indicators of grievance such as political repression and economic inequality do not feature as significant influences. A common core of economic factors underpins proneness to coups and civil wars: low income and a lack of growth. Both are also subject to ‘traps’ – once a coup or civil war has occurred, further events are much more likely. We have attempted to investigate whether policies that favor the military reduce the risk of coups, but have found that if anything, their effect is perverse: high military spending may even increase the risk of a coup.

Authors: Collier, P; Hoeffler, A

• Publication status: Not published
• Peer review status: Not peer reviewed
• Publication date: 2005-01-01
• Edition: Author's Original
• Language: English
• Subjects: Governance in Africa