Trade protection along supply chains

Working paper

We combine detailed information on US temporary trade barriers (antidumping duties, countervailing duties, and safeguards) during 1989-2020 with US input-output data to study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. We focus on measures imposed against China, which has been the main target of US trade protection during the last decades. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable strategy, exploiting changes in the identity of swing states across presidential terms and heterogeneous exposure to these political shocks across industries. We find that politically motivated trade protection generates winners and losers: it fosters employment growth in protected industries, but hampers employment growth in downstream industries. Our estimates imply a negative overall impact on US jobs.

Authors: Conconi, P; Bown, CP; Erbahar, A; Trimarchi, L

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Series: Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series
• Place of publication: Oxford
• Publication date: 2025-10-17
• Paper number: 1091
• Language: English
• Keywords: swing states; supply chains; temporary trade barriers