How the climate crisis was nearly avoided

Journal article

In an all-electric world, there would be little danger of an anthropogenic climate crisis. Humanity came close to that state 125 years ago, as all the ingredients had been discovered or developed, together with knowledge that greenhouse gases would cause global warming. We trace those developments and why they lost out to fossil-fuel based energy, drawing lessons about market failure for the present situation. We model and forecast the energy mix for UK domestic consumption, providing a historical counterfactual had the UK taken the electric path rather than the fossil fuel path more than a century ago.

Authors: Castle, JL; Hendry, DF

• Publication status: Accepted
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Journal: National Institute Economic Review
• Acceptance date: 2026-06-29
• EISSN: 1741-3036
• ISSN: 0027-9501
• Language: English