Journal article icon

Journal article

Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing

Abstract:
Despite a concerted research effort and extensive observational record, uncertainty in climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, the two largest contributions to future warming uncertainty, remains large. Here we highlight the stark disparity that different aerosol forcing can imply for future warming projections: scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement can either easily meet the specified warming limits or risk missing them completely using plausible samples from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed uncertainty ranges.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

Actions


Access Document


Files:
Publisher copy:
10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-5312-4950
More from this funder
Name:
European Commission
Grant:
860100
More from this funder
Name:
Natural Environment Research Council
Grant:
NE/S005099/1
Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
Nature Climate Change More from this journal
Volume:
12
Pages:
1111–1113
Publication date:
2022-11-14
Acceptance date:
2022-08-19
DOI:
EISSN:
1758-6798
ISSN:
1758-678X
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1276567
Local pid:
pubs:1276567
Deposit date:
2022-08-31

Terms of use


Views and Downloads






If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record

TO TOP