Men are from Mars, and women too: a Bayesian meta-analysis of overconfidence experiments

Working paper

Gender differences in self-confidence could explain women’s under representation in high-income occupations and glass-ceiling effects. We draw lessons from the economic literature via a survey of experts and a Bayesian hierarchical model that aggregates exper imental findings over the last twenty years. The experts’ survey indicates beliefs that men are overconfident and women under-confident. Yet, the literature reveals that both men and women are typically overconfident. Moreover, the model cannot reject the hypothe sis that gender differences in self-confidence are equal to zero. In addition, the estimated pooling factor is low, implying that each study contains little information over a common phenomenon. The discordance can be reconciled if the experts overestimate the pooling factor or have priors that are biased and precise.

Authors: Bandiera, O; Parekh, N; Petrongolo, B; Rao, M

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Article number: 957
• Series: Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series
• Publication date: 2021-12-16
• DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12407
• Paper number: 957
• Language: English