Journal article
Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases
- Abstract:
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BackgroundInterventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods.DiscussionHerein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects.ConclusionMuch is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 580.9KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1186/s12916-017-0985-3
Authors
+ Wellcome Trust
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/029chgv08
- Grant:
- 106698/Z/14/Z
+ Medical Research Council
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/03x94j517
- Grant:
- MR/K006924/1
- Publisher:
- BioMed Central
- Journal:
- BMC Medicine More from this journal
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 223
- Publication date:
- 2017-12-29
- Acceptance date:
- 2017-12-05
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1741-7015
- Pmid:
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29287587
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:817185
- UUID:
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uuid:3f0b1d1e-8495-4489-872c-c8cfc76ce5b4
- Local pid:
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pubs:817185
- Source identifiers:
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817185
- Deposit date:
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2018-06-18
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Halloran et al
- Copyright date:
- 2017
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s). 2017 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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