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How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Abstract:

Atmospheric seasonal predictability in winter over the Euro-Atlantic region is studied with an emphasis on the signal-to-noise paradox of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Seasonal hindcasts of the ECMWF model for the recent period 1981-2009 show, in agreement with other studies, that correlation skill over Greenland and parts of the Arctic is higher than the signal-to-noise ratio implies. This leads to the paradoxical situation where the real world appears more predictable than the models sugg...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's Version

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/qj.3446

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics
Subgroup:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
University College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-7231-6974
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics
Subgroup:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics
Subgroup:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-8630-1650
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More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Weisheimer, A
More from this funder
Funding agency for:
Macleod, D
Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Journal website
Volume:
145
Issue:
S1
Pages:
140-159
Publication date:
2018-11-28
Acceptance date:
2018-11-09
DOI:
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009
Pubs id:
pubs:949909
URN:
uri:3ee97729-9043-427d-b231-0382f8b9bf2f
UUID:
uuid:3ee97729-9043-427d-b231-0382f8b9bf2f
Local pid:
pubs:949909
Language:
English
Keywords:

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