- Abstract:
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Atmospheric seasonal predictability in winter over the Euro-Atlantic region is studied with an emphasis on the signal-to-noise paradox of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Seasonal hindcasts of the ECMWF model for the recent period 1981-2009 show, in agreement with other studies, that correlation skill over Greenland and parts of the Arctic is higher than the signal-to-noise ratio implies. This leads to the paradoxical situation where the real world appears more predictable than the models sugg...
Expand abstract - Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
- Version:
- Publisher's Version
- Files:
-
-
(pdf, 19.2MB)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1002/qj.3446
-
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- Publisher:
- Wiley Publisher's website
- Journal:
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Journal website
- Volume:
- 145
- Issue:
- S1
- Pages:
- 140-159
- Publication date:
- 2018-11-28
- Acceptance date:
- 2018-11-09
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1477-870X
- ISSN:
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0035-9009
- Pubs id:
-
pubs:949909
- URN:
-
uri:3ee97729-9043-427d-b231-0382f8b9bf2f
- UUID:
-
uuid:3ee97729-9043-427d-b231-0382f8b9bf2f
- Local pid:
- pubs:949909
- Language:
- English
- Keywords:
- Copyright holder:
- Weisheimer et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2018
- Notes:
- © 2018 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Journal article
How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?
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