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The impact of COVID-19 fiscal spending on climate change adaptation and resilience

Abstract:
Government expenditure and taxation have a significant influence on the long-term adaptation and resilience of societies to climate and other environmental shocks. Unprecedented fiscal spending in the COVID-19 recovery offered an opportunity to systematically enhance adaptation and resilience to future shocks. But did the ‘build back better’ rhetoric manifest in more resilient policy? We develop a dedicated fiscal policy taxonomy for climate change adaptation and resilience (A&R)—the Climate Resilience and Adaptation Financing Taxonomy (CRAFT)—and apply this to analyse ~8,000 government policies across 88 countries. We find that US$279–334 billion (9.7–11.1%) of economic recovery spending potentially had direct A&R benefits. This positive spending is substantial in absolute terms but falls well below adaptation needs. Moreover, a notable portion (27.6–28%) of recovery spending may have had negative impacts on A&R, acting to lock in non-resilient infrastructure. We add a deep learning algorithm to consider A&R themes in associated COVID-19 policy documents. Compared with climate mitigation, A&R received only one-third of the spending and was mentioned only one-seventh as frequently in policy documents. These results suggest that the COVID-19 fiscal response missed many opportunities to advance climate A&R. We draw conclusions for how to better align fiscal policy with A&R.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1038/s41893-024-01269-y

Authors


More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-9000-7692
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0003-4677-7782
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Smith School
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0003-2100-7888
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Smith School
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0009-0000-2935-9891


Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
Nature Sustainability More from this journal
Volume:
7
Issue:
3
Pages:
270–281
Publication date:
2024-02-01
Acceptance date:
2024-01-03
DOI:
EISSN:
2398-9629
ISSN:
2398-9629


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1615003
Local pid:
pubs:1615003
Deposit date:
2024-02-08

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