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Are all truths maximally risky?

Abstract:
According to the modal account, risk is a function of modal closeness. A puzzling consequence of this account is that all truths are maximally risky. I defend this puzzling claim against several objections found in the literature, by drawing connections between axiom T for safety and risk and between counterfactual reasoning and risk. I conclude by briefly explaining why we find the conclusion puzzling and by advocating for a pluralist notion of risk where modal risk is a legitimate notion alongside the probabilistic one.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1093/analys/anaf077

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
New College
Role:
Author


Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Journal:
Analysis More from this journal
Article number:
anaf077
Publication date:
2025-10-04
Acceptance date:
2025-09-19
DOI:
EISSN:
1467-8284
ISSN:
0003-2638


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
2301529
Local pid:
pubs:2301529
Source identifiers:
3341542
Deposit date:
2025-10-04
ARK identifier:
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