Response of Early Winter Precipitation and Storm Activity in the North Atlantic–European–Mediterranean Region to Indian Ocean SST Variability

Journal article

Plain Language Summary: We investigate how the variability in the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in autumn, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), influences the precipitation regime and storm activity in the North Atlantic, Europe, and Mediterranean regions during the winter season. Our results indicate that IOD variability triggers December shifts in atmospheric pressure over these regions and alters precipitation patterns, influencing the frequency and intensity of precipitation events. The strongest impacts are observed at mid‐latitudes, with storm activity decreasing over the Eastern Atlantic and Western Mediterranean. These storm changes are tied to stronger temperature contrasts between the north and south part of the domain, which produce significant changes in the vertical wind shear. Our study further supports the idea that Indian Ocean variability may influence the early winter weather in Europe and the Mediterranean—an important insight for improving sub‐seasonal to seasonal forecasts.

Authors: Reale, M; Raganato, A; D'Andrea, F; Abid, MA; Hochman, A

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Wiley
• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Volume: 52
• Issue: 20
• Article number: e2025GL116732
• Publication date: 2025-10-16
• Acceptance date: 2025-08-07
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116732
• EISSN: 1944-8007
• ISSN: 0094-8276
• Language: English
• Keywords: Mean sea level pressure; Eady growth rate; Precipitation; Indian Ocean dipole; Cyclone tracks; North Atlantic‐European‐Mediterranean region