Working paper
On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
- Abstract:
-
Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forecast badly, and a poor model can forecast successfully. Delineating the main causes of forecast failure reveals transformations that can correct failure without altering the 'quality' of the model ...
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- Publication status:
- Published
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Bibliographic Details
- Publisher:
- University of Oxford Publisher's website
- Series:
- Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series
- Publication date:
- 2011-02-01
- Paper number:
- 538
Item Description
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
1143901
- Local pid:
- pubs:1143901
- Deposit date:
- 2020-12-15
Terms of use
- Copyright date:
- 2011
- Rights statement:
- Copyright 2011 The Author(s)
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