Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

Journal article

Amazonia is highly sensitive to climate extremes, yet we lack an Amazon-wide assessment that examines the spatial-temporal changes in these extreme conditions. We address this within seasons and across the hydrological year, using a quantiles approach that integrates the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and by linking changes in temperature with evapotranspiration. We show that high temperature extremes and temperature-linked measures of water deficit are both changing at a much faster rate than central trends. The 95th percentile of maximum temperatures in the driest period increased by 0.49 °C per decade (dec-1) compared to 0.21°C dec-1 for the central trend of mean temperatures for the year. Crucially, over 700,000 square kilometres in central-north Amazonia have experienced increases in extreme dry season temperatures ≥ 0.75 °C dec-1 ( ≥ 3.22 °C over 43 years). Adaptation measures for these rapid changes in climate extremes must include preventing the deforestation and disturbances that amplify risks.

Authors: Barlow, J; Carvalho, NS; Nunes, CA; Aguiar, APD; Alencar, A

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment More from this journal
• Volume: 7
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 746
• Article number: 746
• Publication date: 2026-09-10
• Acceptance date: 2026-08-18
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1
• EISSN: 2662-4435
• ISSN: 2662-4435
• Language: English
• Keywords: quantile analysis; Amazon basin; dry season; evapotranspiration; drought stress; hydrological year; spatiotemporal trends; deforestation; climate change adaptation; climate extremes; temperature extremes