Anticipating financial crisis in the 1960s and 1980s: Using the past to plan for the 'Apocalypse'

Working paper

The 2008 crisis was a boon to the discipline of economic history and created an appetite for 'lessons from the past' by academics as well as policy-makers as they sought to respond to the failure of economic theory to anticipate the crisis. But beyond this intense example, can we make conclusions about the pathway to impact for historical treatments? Is there something especially inspiring or impactful about the 1930s? Does the widespread awareness that there was an interwar great depression and that it was terrible and that it may have contributed to the Second World War mean that it has particular resonance when it is invoked by policy-makers? How has the past been used in anticipation of (rather than reaction to) financial crises? Examining two episodes, this chapter demonstrates the use of the past as a parable for current and future policy and as a rehearsal for a future crisis.

Authors: Schenk, CR

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Article number: 193
• Series: Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers
• Publication date: 2021-05-12
• Paper number: 193
• Language: English
• Keywords: devaluation; Bretton Woods; central bank cooperation; debt crisis; Great Depression