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Current level and rate of warming determine emissions budgets under ambitious mitigation

Abstract:

Some of the differences between recent estimates of the remaining budget of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C arise from different estimates of the level of warming to date relative to pre-industrial conditions, but not all. Here we show that, for simple geometrical reasons, the combination of both the level and rate of human-induced warming provides a remarkably accurate prediction of remaining emission budgets to peak warming across a broad range of s...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1038/s41561-018-0156-y

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
Lincoln College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0003-4470-1813
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Social Sciences
Department:
School of Geography and the Environment
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Social Sciences
Department:
School of Geography and the Environment
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
Wadham College
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Oxford college:
Worcester College
Role:
Author
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Publisher:
Macmillan Publishers Ltd. Publisher's website
Journal:
Nature Geoscience Journal website
Volume:
11
Pages:
574–579
Publication date:
2018-06-18
Acceptance date:
2018-05-15
DOI:
EISSN:
1752-0908
ISSN:
1752-0894
Pubs id:
pubs:864255
URN:
uri:3824bdbc-4b98-4ff9-9aa6-4efc7368be20
UUID:
uuid:3824bdbc-4b98-4ff9-9aa6-4efc7368be20
Local pid:
pubs:864255

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