Human nature, after all: affective realism in Russian foreign policy

Thesis

Russia continues to challenge the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, perhaps even Western interpretations of a rules-based international order. Its actions have repeatedly blindsided foreign policy analysis. That is partly due to shortcomings of predominant theoretical paradigms in International Relations. To supplement prevailing perspectives, this thesis proposes the use of affect as a conceptual lens.

Affective realism combines classical realist scholarship on human nature with research in the life sciences. The resulting analytical framework outlines a process of appraisal, which generates specific affective responses and action tendencies. A didactic and probabilistic approach, affective realism is not intended to disprove competing narratives. In fact, affective science may corroborate the assumptions on which some rationalist or constructivist models are predicated.

The plausibility of the theoretical propositions and methodological approach thus developed is probed via four cases: Russia’s response to NATO intervention in the Balkans in 1999; a study of Russian attitudes towards Europe and the US between 2000 and 2008; the Russian-Georgian war of 2008; and the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Anger over the non-recognition of Russian great-power status has steadily curtailed elites’ willingness to compromise. Around 2007, the quality and intensity of their affective disposition towards the West shifted from resentment to contempt, favouring yet more assertive policies. The thesis also finds that concerns regarding analysts’ inability to distinguish between genuine and instrumental displays of affect might be overstated. What leaders experience and express publicly is often congruent or converges over time. However, affectively valenced concerns are located at different levels. References to security threats, for example, could be indicative of more deeply felt ontological anxieties or officials’ visceral fear over regime stability and their personal safety. Understanding affective dynamics, and the action tendencies they promote, can improve explanations of foreign policy in the Russian case and potentially others.

Authors: Edinger, H

• DOI: 10.5287/ora-yqbga2pjo
• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: Russia; Political psychology; Foreign policy analysis; Realism; Emotion
• Subjects: International relations and culture