Journal article
Trends in cancer incidence and mortality in the UK from 1980 - 2013: The potential for overdiagnosis
- Abstract:
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The incidence of cancer in the United Kingdom has increased significantly over the last four decades. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality by cancer site and assess the potential for overdiagnosis.
Using Cancer Research UK incidence and mortality data for the period (1971 – 2014) we estimated percentage change in incidence and mortality rates and the incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) for cancers in which incidence had increased > 50%. Incidence and mortality trend plots were used to assess the potential for overdiagnosis.
Incidence rates increased from 67% (uterine) to 375% (melanoma). Change in mortality rates ranged from -69% (cervical) to +239% (liver). The greatest divergences occurred in uterine (IMR = 132), prostate (IMR = 9:6), oral (IMR = 9:8) and thyroid cancer (IMR = 5:3). Only in liver cancer did mortality track incidence (IMR = 1:1).
For four cancer sites; uterine, prostate, oral and thyroid, incidence and mortality trends are suggestive of overdiagnosis. Trends in melanoma and kidney cancer suggest potential overdiagnosis and an underlying increase in true risk, whereas for cervical and breast cancer, trends may also reflect improvements in treatments or earlier diagnosis. A more detailed analysis is required to fully understand these patterns.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 1.3MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s41598-018-32844-x
Authors
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Journal:
- Scientific Reports More from this journal
- Volume:
- 8
- Pages:
- 14663
- Publication date:
- 2018-10-02
- Acceptance date:
- 2018-09-07
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2045-2322
- ISSN:
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2045-2322
- Pubs id:
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pubs:911583
- UUID:
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uuid:35b3859f-2ae1-475c-bed3-ddf42539ed35
- Local pid:
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pubs:911583
- Source identifiers:
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911583
- Deposit date:
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2018-08-31
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Oke et al
- Copyright date:
- 2018
- Notes:
- © The Author(s) 2018. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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