Journal article

Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election

Abstract:: This paper discusses a new probabilistic forecasting method that was designed for the 2015 British general election. It proceeds in a series of steps from opinion poll averaging, forecasting national-level vote shares and uncertainty estimates, and subsequent simulation of hypothetical election results, through modelling of constituency polls and survey data to identify and adjust for patterns in the constituency-level variation in party performance, and finally to probabilistic forecasting of seat outcomes and of different combinations of parties commanding relevant governing majorities in parliament.

Publication status:: Published

Peer review status:: Peer reviewed

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APA Style

Fisher, S. (2015). Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election. Electoral Studies, 41, 234–238.

MLA Style

Fisher, S. “Piecing It All Together and Forecasting Who Governs: The 2015 British General Election.” Electoral Studies, vol. 41, 2015, pp. 234–38.

Chicago Style

Fisher, S. 2015. “Piecing It All Together and Forecasting Who Governs: The 2015 British General Election.” Electoral Studies 41: 234–38.
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Files:: DB4forecast_paper_revisedv5.pdf

(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 266.8KB, Terms of use)

Publisher copy:: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.014

Authors

+ Fisher, S More by this author

Institution:: University of Oxford
Division:: SSD
Department:: Sociology
Role:: Author

Publisher:: Elsevier
Journal:: Electoral Studies More from this journal
Volume:: 41
Pages:: 234-238
Publication date:: 2015-11-24
DOI:: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.014
ISSN:: 0261-3794

Keywords:: Government formation

Election forecasting

British politics

UK elections

Opinion polls
Pubs id:: pubs:597482
UUID:: uuid:340e4153-cd5d-42de-81bf-ca2c62b8cd6e
Local pid:: pubs:597482
Source identifiers:: 597482
Deposit date:: 2016-01-26
ARK identifier:: ark:/29072/ora_340e4153cd5d42de81bfca2c62b8cd6e

Terms of use

Copyright holder:: Elsevier
Copyright date:: 2015
Notes:: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Elsevier at: [10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.014]

Licence:: CC Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC BY-NC-ND)

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