The role of the Institute of Economic Affairs in the gestation of the Phillips curve myth

Journal article

The “Phillips curve myth” is a collection of stories around the idea that the discovery of the Phillips curve in 1958 sent economic policy awry and led to inflation. One of the principal sources of this story seems to be a presentation by Milton Friedman at the Institute of Economic Affairs in 1974 (published the following year). As well as presenting fiction as fact, it fits very poorly with Friedman’s other work. It is argued that the IEA itself plays a role in the development of the story. First, the attitude to the Phillips curve of British monetarists, who were often associated with the IEA, may have laid groundwork for it. Second, four particular individuals who were part of IEA discussions at the time made arguments with greater or lesser similarity to what became the Phillips curve myth. And finally, in connection with Friedman’s paper, the IEA itself seems to have promoted a picture of policymaking along the lines of the myth.

Authors: Forder, J

• Publication status: Accepted
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Duke University Press
• Journal: History of Political Economy
• Acceptance date: 2026-05-15
• EISSN: 1527-1919
• ISSN: 0018-2702
• Language: English