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From reliable weather forecasts to skilful climate response: A dynamical systems approach

Abstract:

While weather forecasting models can be tested by performing and evaluating many hindcasts, the limited observational record restricts the degree to which climate projections can be evaluated. Therefore a question of interest is: to what degree can we evaluate the potential skill of a climate model's response to forcing by assessing the reliability of short‐range weather and seasonal forecasts produced by the same model? We address this question using a dynamical systems framework. We use lin...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's Version

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/qj.3476

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS Division
Department:
Physics
Subgroup:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-8244-0218
Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Journal website
Volume:
145
Issue:
720A
Pages:
1052-1069
Publication date:
2019-02-28
Acceptance date:
2019-01-16
DOI:
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009
Pubs id:
pubs:965535
URN:
uri:2c5a7553-f038-41d8-887d-fe01a9a34a6d
UUID:
uuid:2c5a7553-f038-41d8-887d-fe01a9a34a6d
Local pid:
pubs:965535

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