Journal article
Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus in the central Arctic through CMIP6 climate models
- Abstract:
- The Arctic is experiencing heightened precipitation, affected by aerosols impacting rainfall and snowfall. However, sparse aerosol observations in the central Arctic cryosphere contribute to uncertainties in simulating aerosol-precipitation two-way interaction. This study examines aerosol-precipitation co-variation in various climate models during the Arctic spring and summer seasons from 2003 to 2011, leveraging satellite-based aerosol data and various CMIP6 climate models. Findings reveal significant spatio-temporal biases between models and observations. Snowfall dominance occurs in models where total AOD surpasses the observation by 121% (57–186%, confidence interval), intensifying simulated snowfall by two times compared to rainfall during summer. Consequently, climate models tend to underestimate central Arctic rainfall to the total precipitation ratio, suggesting a positive bias towards snowfall dominance. This highlights the importance of constraining total AOD and associated aerosol schemes in climate models using satellite measurements, which potentially could lead to a substantial reduction in snowfall contribution to the total precipitation ratio in the central Arctic, contrary to current multi-model simulations across various spatiotemporal scales.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 2.0MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s41612-025-00957-6
Authors
+ Natural Environment Research Council
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/02b5d8509
- Grant:
- NCEO/Oxford extension 2023-24
- NCEO/Oxford extension 2024-25
- Publisher:
- Nature Research
- Journal:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science More from this journal
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 103
- Publication date:
- 2025-03-13
- Acceptance date:
- 2025-02-03
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2397-3722
- ISSN:
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2397-3722
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
2094935
- UUID:
-
uuid_2aee7b07-27bd-4389-8924-51c943c958f7
- Local pid:
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pubs:2094935
- Source identifiers:
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W4408408280
- Deposit date:
-
2025-03-17
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Swain et al
- Copyright date:
- 2025
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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