Geospatial and phylogenetic clustering of acute and recent HIV infections in Lilongwe, Malawi

Journal article

HIV transmission during early HIV infection impedes efforts to end HIV as a public health threat, as diagnosis typically occurs after this period of elevated transmission risk. To guide diagnosis and prevention strategies, we evaluated the geospatial and phylogenetic clustering of acute and recent HIV infection in Lilongwe, Malawi. We identified people with acute (pre-seroconversion) HIV infection (AHI) and a random sample of people with post-acute HIV infection who presented to a sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi between 2015 and 2019. We evaluated infection recency in people with post-acute HIV using a LAg-Avidity assay. We mapped the household locations of people with AHI and identified geospatial clusters using a flexible scan statistic. We constructed consensus sequences from deep sequencing reads to identify phylogenetic clusters through genetic distance thresholds and maximum likelihood trees. We identified 141 people with AHI, 30 people with recent HIV, and 652 people with chronic (non-recent) HIV. We identified four geospatial clusters that contained the residences of 30% of clinic attendees with AHI, despite comprising just 0.8% of the populated land area and 3.5% of the population. We also identified fourteen distinct two-person phylogenetic clusters. Ten of the fourteen were male-female pairs, nine of which were clinic referral pairs. The remaining four were same-sex pairs who had not referred each other to the clinic and may have been missing network intermediaries. Three of the fourteen phylogenetic pairs consisted of only acute/recent members, and zero phylogenetic linkages were located within geospatial clusters. AHI detection programs anchored in STI clinic populations and their neighborhoods could facilitate identification of early HIV infection, enabling treatment initiation and transmission prevention efforts during this most infectious period. Future studies of intervention packages and deployment approaches can help inform the optimal design and implementation of AHI-focused strategies for reducing HIV incidence.

Authors: Bell, GJ; Powers, KA; Ratmann, O; Dennis, AM; Mmodzi, P

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• Journal: PLOS Global Public Health
• Volume: 5
• Issue: 11
• Article number: e0005420
• Publication date: 2025-11-05
• Acceptance date: 2025-10-16
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0005420
• EISSN: 2767-3375
• ISSN: 2767-3375
• Language: English