Journal article
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
- Abstract:
- Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
Actions
Access Document
- Files:
-
-
(Preview, Version of record, 2.1MB, Terms of use)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1126/science.abd2161
Authors
- Publisher:
- American Association for the Advancement of Science
- Journal:
- Science More from this journal
- Volume:
- 369
- Issue:
- 6508
- Pages:
- 1255-1260
- Place of publication:
- United States
- Publication date:
- 2020-09-04
- Acceptance date:
- 2020-07-16
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
1095-9203
- ISSN:
-
0036-8075
- Pmid:
-
32703910
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
1124461
- Local pid:
-
pubs:1124461
- Deposit date:
-
2020-10-12
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Candido, DS et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2020
- Rights statement:
- © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record