Journal article icon

Journal article

Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

Abstract:
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

Actions


Access Document


Files:
Publisher copy:
10.1126/science.abd2161

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Zoology
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-5080-3130
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-8637-2910
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-5404-272X
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-0025-8293
More by this author
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-7162-5070


Publisher:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Journal:
Science More from this journal
Volume:
369
Issue:
6508
Pages:
1255-1260
Place of publication:
United States
Publication date:
2020-09-04
Acceptance date:
2020-07-16
DOI:
EISSN:
1095-9203
ISSN:
0036-8075
Pmid:
32703910


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1124461
Local pid:
pubs:1124461
Deposit date:
2020-10-12

Terms of use



Views and Downloads






If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record

TO TOP