Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal

Journal article

This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multiple simultaneous or sequential hazards. By conceptualising risks within a hypergraph framework, our model overcomes these limitations, enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on infrastructure. We apply this model to the 2015 M_w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal as a case study, demonstrating its ability to simulate the primary and secondary effects of the earthquake on buildings and roads across the whole earthquake-affected area. The model predicts the overall pattern of earthquake-induced building damage and landslide impacts, albeit with a tendency towards over-prediction. Our findings underscore the potential of the hypergraph approach for multi-hazard risk assessment, offering advances in rapid computation and scenario exploration for cascading geo-hazards. This approach could provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and humanitarian contingency planning, where the anticipation of large-scale trends is often more important than the prediction of detailed impacts.

Authors: Dunant, A; Robinson, TR; Densmore, AL; Rosser, NJ; Rajbhandari, RM

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: European Geosciences Union
• Journal: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• Volume: 25
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 267-285
• Publication date: 2025-01-20
• Acceptance date: 2024-11-13
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025
• EISSN: 1684-9981
• ISSN: 1561-8633
• Language: English
• Keywords: cascading multi-hazards; multi-hazard modelling; earthquake impacts; landslides; Nepal; network modelling; hypergraphs