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Journal article

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the 20th century

Abstract:

Seasonal hindcast experiments, using prescribed SSTs, are analysed for Northern Hemisphere winters from 1900-2010. Ensemble mean Pacific/North American index (PNA) skill varies dramatically, dropping towards zero during the mid-twentieth century, with similar variability in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) hindcast skill. The PNA skill closely follows the correlation between the observed PNA index and tropical Pacific SST anomalies. During the mid-century period the PNA and NAO hindcast error...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/2017GL073736

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
More from this funder
Name:
EU-FP7
Funding agency for:
Weisheimer, A
MacLeod, D
Grant:
308378
308378
More from this funder
Name:
Natural Environmental Research Council
Funding agency for:
Weisheimer, A
Woollings, T
O'Reilly, C
Grant:
308378
NE/M005887/1
NE/M005887/1
More from this funder
Name:
Met Office Academic Partnership
Funding agency for:
Heatley, J
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters More from this journal
Volume:
44
Issue:
11
Pages:
5729-5738
Publication date:
2017-05-24
Acceptance date:
2017-05-21
DOI:
EISSN:
1944-8007
ISSN:
0094-8276
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:697661
UUID:
uuid:22245d66-d0c7-4eee-ab4c-b6b8cf066266
Local pid:
pubs:697661
Source identifiers:
697661
Deposit date:
2017-05-30

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