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A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead.

Abstract:

This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for double seasonality and a new method based on principal component analysis (PCA). The methods are co...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.06.006

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Lilian M. de Menezes More by this author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
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Funding agency for:
Patrick E. McSharry
Publisher:
Elsevier B.V. Publisher's website
Journal:
International Journal of Forecasting Journal website
Volume:
22
Issue:
1
Publication date:
2006
DOI:
URN:
uuid:21b59bfb-731a-4279-9375-bd7c0eaf02bb
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:14877
Language:
English

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