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A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead.

Abstract:

This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for double seasonality and a new method based on principal component analysis (PCA). The methods are co...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.06.006

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Role:
Author
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Name:
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Funding agency for:
McSharry, P
More from this funder
Name:
Royal Academy of Engineering
Funding agency for:
McSharry, P
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
International Journal of Forecasting More from this journal
Volume:
22
Issue:
1
Pages:
1 - 16
Publication date:
2006-01-01
DOI:
ISSN:
0169-2070
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:21b59bfb-731a-4279-9375-bd7c0eaf02bb
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:14877
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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