Journal article
Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability
- Abstract:
- Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale changes play a vital role in shaping regional climate and extreme weather events across the UK and Western Europe. This review synthesizes the characteristics of observed large-scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations during past decades, identifies the drivers and physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and discusses the predictability of these circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, anthropogenic forcings (especially greenhouse gases), and natural forcings (such as solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are identified as key contributors to large-scale variability in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations. However, there remain many uncertainties regarding the detailed characteristics of these various influences, and in some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that a better understanding of these drivers, and more accurate quantification of their relative roles, are crucial for more reliable decadal predictions and projections of regional climate for the North Atlantic and Europe.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 4.3MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
Authors
+ Natural Environment Research Council
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- Funder identifier:
- https://ror.org/02b5d8509
- Grant:
- NE/W004981/1
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Climate Dynamics More from this journal
- Volume:
- 63
- Issue:
- 2
- Article number:
- 113
- Place of publication:
- Germany
- Publication date:
- 2025-02-05
- Acceptance date:
- 2025-01-07
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1432-0894
- ISSN:
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0930-7575
- Pmid:
-
40059872
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
2084751
- Local pid:
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pubs:2084751
- Deposit date:
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2025-03-31
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Dong et al
- Copyright date:
- 2025
- Rights statement:
- © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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