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Automation and the displacement of labor by capital: asset pricing theory and empirical evidence

Abstract:
I examine the asset pricing implications of technological innovations that allow capital to displace labor: automation. I develop a theory in which firms with displaceable labor are negatively exposed to such technology shocks. In the model, firms optimally adopt technology to gain competitive advantage but in equilibrium competition erodes profits and decreases firm value. Empirically, I find that firms with high share of displaceable labor have negative exposure to technology shocks. A long-short portfolio sorted on this variable mimics macroeconomic measures of technology shocks. Negatively exposed firms earn a 4% annual return premium consistent with displacement risk from technological progress.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.11.003

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Saïd Business School
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-2334-491X
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Journal of Financial Economics More from this journal
Volume:
147
Issue:
2
Pages:
271-296
Publication date:
2022-11-24
Acceptance date:
2022-11-07
DOI:
EISSN:
1879-2774
ISSN:
0304-405X
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1311560
Local pid:
pubs:1311560
Deposit date:
2022-12-06

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