Energy-transition risks create uneven financial impacts across India’s power sector

Journal article

India’s power sector faces significant climate transition risks due to its reliance on coal. Here we assess these risks using a forward-looking, microeconomic climate transition model, integrating two modeling scenarios across two pathways—Below 2 °C and Net Zero Emissions 2050—for transition shock years 2025 and 2030, covering 1703 companies across coal, gas, renewables, nuclear, hydro, and oil. Projections reveal that coal and gas companies would experience substantial net present value losses (85%–90% and 29%–75%, respectively). Delayed transition amplifies impacts by 10%–15% when shock year shifts from 2025 to 2030. Renewable companies are projected to realize moderate gains (14%–30%), while hydropower remains largely unaffected and nuclear outcomes are mixed. Overall, dominance of fossil fuels results in a negative sectoral outlook, with aggregate losses of 48%–54%. Our findings suggest that early policy intervention and accelerated transition could influence financial losses in fossil fuel sectors.

Authors: Jindal, A; Shrimali, G; Gallice, B; Buller, A; Cervenka, J

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Nature Research
• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Volume: 7
• Issue: 1
• Article number: 517
• Publication date: 2026-05-13
• Acceptance date: 2026-04-28
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03595-9
• EISSN: 2662-4435
• ISSN: 2662-4435
• Language: English
• Keywords: Financial sector; Power (physics); Government (linguistics); Financial risk; Risk management; Work (physics)