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Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research.

Abstract:

This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, a...

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Volume:
2002-W11
Series:
Economics Working Papers
Publication date:
2001-10-05
URN:
uuid:1b99daea-2a0f-4acb-8cc3-955d01211264
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:11909
Language:
English

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