Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers' perspective, 2020 to 2022

Journal article

BACKGROUNDAdvanced outbreak analytics were instrumental in informing governmental decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, systematic evaluations of how modelling practices, data use and science-policy interactions evolved during this and previous emergencies remain scarce.AIMThis study assessed the evolution of modelling practices, data usage, gaps, and engagement between modellers and decision-makers to inform future global epidemic intelligence.METHODSWe conducted a two-stage semiquantitative survey among modellers in a large European epidemic intelligence consortium. Responses were analysed descriptively across early, mid- and late-pandemic phases. We used policy citations in Overton to assess policy impact.RESULTSOur sample included 66 modelling contributions from 11 institutions in four European countries. COVID-19 modelling initially prioritised understanding epidemic dynamics; evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination impacts later became equally important. Traditional surveillance data (e.g. case line lists) were widely available in near-real time. Conversely, real-time non-traditional data (notably social contact and behavioural surveys) and serological data were frequently reported as lacking. Gaps included poor stratification and incomplete geographical coverage. Frequent bidirectional engagement with decision-makers shaped modelling scope and recommendations. However, fewer than half of the studies shared open-access code.CONCLUSIONSWe highlight the evolving use and needs of modelling during public health crises. Persistent gaps in the availability of non-traditional data underscore the need to rethink sustainable data collection and sharing practices, including from for-profit providers. Future preparedness should focus on strengthening collaborative platforms, research consortia and modelling networks to foster data and code sharing and effective collaboration between academia, decision-makers and data providers.

Authors: van Kleef, E; Van Bortel, W; Arsevska, E; Busani, L; Dellicour, S

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
• Journal: Eurosurveillance: Europe's journal on infectious disease surveillance, epidemiology, prevention and control
• Volume: 30
• Issue: 42
• Pages: 2500216
• Publication date: 2025-10-01
• DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2025.30.42.2500216
• EISSN: 1025-496X
• ISSN: 1560-7917
• Pmid: 41133306
• Language: English
• Keywords: Europe; Pandemic Decision-making; Decision Making; Pandemics; Science-policy Interface; Humans; Information Dissemination; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Modelling; Surveys and Questionnaires; Outbreak Analytics; Enhanced Infectious Disease Surveillance