Journal article
Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions
- Abstract:
- The unconstrained growth rate of COVID-19 is crucial for measuring the impact of interventions, assessing worst-case scenarios, and calibrating mathematical models for policy planning. However, robust estimates are limited, with scientific focus on the time-insensitive basic reproduction number R0. Using multiple countries, data streams and methods, we consistently estimate that European COVID-19 cases doubled every three days when unconstrained, with the impact of physical distancing interventions typically seen about nine days after implementation, during which time cases grew eight-fold. The combination of fast growth and long detection delays explains the struggle in countries' response better than large values of R0 alone, and warns against relaxing physical distancing measures too quickly. Testing and tracing are fundamental in shortening such delays, thus preventing cases from escalating unnoticed.
- Publication status:
- Not published
- Peer review status:
- Not peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Pre-print, 1.5MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1101/2020.04.12.20059972
Authors
- Publisher:
- Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
- Journal:
- medRxiv More from this journal
- Publication date:
- 2020-06-11
- DOI:
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1113010
- Local pid:
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pubs:1113010
- Deposit date:
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2020-06-22
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Pellis, L et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2020
- Rights statement:
- The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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